Total cases. Having watched the virus rampage from China all the way to the United States and Europe, we are now seeing it creep into other developing countries. And as we will show later, a second wave in Asia is clearly foreseeable. Among the other emerging trends is a broad-scale spread of infection in absolute terms in most of Latin America (especially Brazil), and rapid growth rate of total cases in Africa, where the increase since June is 8.1 times, although Africa’s share is only 5% yet from all cases (which might be attributed to false data as well). The global growth rate of total cases from 1st June to 16th August has been around 3.5 times, whereas in Latin America it was 5.7 times, and in Asia it was 6.9 times (mostly due to India and countries other than China). The most concerns in terms of both speed and scale of pandemic spread amid the weak infrastructure and high population density relate to India. An overall distribution of total cases per region has changed and shows a decrease of the share in Europe (from 34.1% to 16%) and North America (from 30.4% to 25.5%) from the 1st June to 16th August. The Middle East has exhibited slightly lower than average global growth rates. There have been outbreaks in April (possibly due to the onset of a stronger second wave in Asia), but no sharp growth has been recorded there since June (conversely there are signs of much lesser growth in such countries as UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and even Egypt)
New cases (daily). For the period from June 1 to Aug, 16, in terms of an increase in daily cases, the greatest concern is the threat of a second wave in Asia, including the largest growth in Japan (28 times from 35 to 1000+ per day), the Philippines (from 550 to 3340 or 6 times), and a large-scale threat in India (from 7.7 thousand to 57 thousand new cases per day).
The total rate of increase in the number of new cases in Asia per day during this period was more than 4 times (from 17 to 70 thousand new cases per day), while in Latin America, Africa and North America this figure is approximately equal to 2.2-2, 3 times. The growth of new daily cases since the beginning of summer in Asia exceeds Africa and America by 1.8 times, despite the fact that the total number in Asia has become much lower.