GeoEconomics: Global Trends in the 21st Century
Humanity will become stronger and stronger, however, at the same time it will gradually age: due to technology, more and more diseases will be successfully cured, and more and more will be spent on healthcare, medicines and medical tourism. Everyone will be connected ever more closely to everyone else. Information and communication technology, cheap travel and migration will change people’s behavior, work and mindset. In 50 years, everyone will be accessible to each other worldwide. Meanwhile, localization gains momentum, tribal feelings are developed in the new citystates, local trumps global. We will experience the “rise” of the machines, and out of the fusion of Genetics, Robotics, the Internet and Nanotechnology, the GRIN technology will be born. The shift of power from the West to the East is a huge shaping force: China and India will be the winners of the coming decades, and Russia, Brazil and Mexico will increase their clout.
The unipolar world will once again develop into a multipolar one, and a new world order will arise in the 21st century. This phenomenon can be attributed to several readily observable reasons:
- Aging and migration have various economic and social implications in both developing and developed countries
- In the global world based on new technologies, the door is open to everyone. The knowledge flow between developed and rapidly developing economies is a dual process: it forges connections (new alliances, catalysts), and at the same time the employer country increasingly becomes a mere provider of knowledge rather than its producer
- Global strategies are replaced by “regional” cooperations. Among the numerous alliances of the multipolar world, smaller countries may often be able to tip the scales
- If the paramount conditions for successful economic growth will be a highly skilled labor force, balancing between regional cooperations and resilience to crises, peripheral countries with a flexible and knowledge-intensive economy might act as the new points of reference in the world economy
- After the crisis, new value systems will develop, in which maximizing short-term profits will be of secondary importance behind long-term value creation and preservation. In parallel with the transformation of responsibilities, new industries will reshape the markets.
Therefore every country’s long-term strategy should include a vision that puts its own local strengths in the service of sustained economic growth, employment and improving living standards in the global geopolitical and geo-economic competition.